Copper Futures
Industrial metals · Monthly series · COMEX:HG1!
Latest, October 2026
6.48 USD/LBR
-2.1% from September 2026
Forecast
No forecast is cached this cycle.
AI confidence
No forecast yetEvidence will appear when a forecast and its backtests are available.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
4 of 4 models evaluatedModels are selected on older tests and evaluated on separate recent tests. All four classes completed their backtests.
Models tested
Timestral scored lowest on the 6 older tests (0.99) and was chosen. The 6 recent tests played no part in the choice and give its grade (1.01). The search for a model that beats the naive forecast on both sets of tests goes on. Scores are MASE: a model's errors divided by the naive forecast's, so 1 is a tie.
4 model classes completed the tests: Foundation model, Statistical, Machine learning, Neural network.
| Model | Class / library | Older tests | Recent tests | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timestral (foundation model) | Foundation model · Timestral · GPU | 0.99 | 1.01 | Serving |
| AutoETS (statistical) | Statistical · StatsForecast · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Tested |
| Naive forecast (last value held) | Benchmark · CPU | 1.00 | 1.00 | Benchmark |
| CatBoost (machine learning) | Machine learning · MLForecast · CPU | 1.10 | 1.03 | Tested |
| N-HiTS (neural network) | Neural network · NeuralForecast · CPU | 1.27 | 0.97 | Tested |
Reading
It is above 98% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 6.48 USD/LBR |
| September 2026 | 6.62 USD/LBR |
| August 2026 | 6.69 USD/LBR |
| July 2026 | 6.47 USD/LBR |
| June 2026 | 6.25 USD/LBR |
| May 2026 | 6.39 USD/LBR |
| April 2026 | 5.98 USD/LBR |
| March 2026 | 5.61 USD/LBR |
| February 2026 | 6.06 USD/LBR |
| January 2026 | 5.92 USD/LBR |
| December 2025 | 5.68 USD/LBR |
| November 2025 | 5.27 USD/LBR |
| October 2025 | 5.09 USD/LBR |
| September 2025 | 4.86 USD/LBR |
| August 2025 | 4.59 USD/LBR |
| July 2025 | 4.35 USD/LBR |
| June 2025 | 5.08 USD/LBR |
| May 2025 | 4.68 USD/LBR |
| April 2025 | 4.61 USD/LBR |
| March 2025 | 5.03 USD/LBR |
| February 2025 | 4.55 USD/LBR |
| January 2025 | 4.28 USD/LBR |
| December 2024 | 4.03 USD/LBR |
| November 2024 | 4.14 USD/LBR |
Source
Data: COMEX feed via TradingView.
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