Ethereum

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: State-space model, 167M (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+17%Beats the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 2 won)

Direction

50%No clear edge over a coin flip (36 of 72 calls right in 6 tests)

Turning points

2 of 27Anticipated some turns (27 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

17% lowerError ratio 0.83; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

2 / 6Complete recent tests excluded from model selection; ties count as no win.

Test period

2020-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-13 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.