AgenticInvestor

Hungary Steel Production

Hungary · Monthly series · EC-HU-SP

Latest, December 2020

90,000.0 pts

-18.9% from November 2020

Open interactive chartHungary Steel Production in the app

182.7K109.9K37KJanuary 2011December 2021
History through December 2020, the forecast path to December 2021 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2021: 118,999.3 pts, with an 80% interval of 86,827.2 pts to 145,797.8 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 202189,779.4 pts65,712.8 pts118,109.2 pts
February 202194,304.0 pts45,923.5 pts147,491.2 pts
March 2021104,772.4 pts44,471.4 pts166,672.5 pts
April 2021108,102.9 pts70,957.4 pts144,587.0 pts
May 2021113,806.3 pts54,832.4 pts166,619.2 pts
June 2021110,215.5 pts51,305.7 pts166,070.5 pts
July 2021114,823.3 pts44,246.7 pts177,371.1 pts
August 2021113,938.6 pts59,667.6 pts162,551.8 pts
September 2021118,869.0 pts44,094.3 pts182,704.6 pts
October 2021125,243.0 pts55,688.5 pts179,306.8 pts
November 2021122,355.9 pts52,446.0 pts178,871.8 pts
December 2021118,999.3 pts86,827.2 pts145,797.8 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
-6%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 3 won)
Direction
58%No clear edge over a coin flip (80 of 137 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
65 of 81Anticipated most turns (81 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
6% higherError ratio 1.06; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
3 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2009-01-01 to 2020-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 18% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2011.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 202090,000.0 pts
November 2020111,000.0 pts
October 2020120,000.0 pts
September 2020114,000.0 pts
August 2020112,000.0 pts
July 2020127,000.0 pts
June 2020145,000.0 pts
May 2020170,000.0 pts
April 2020152,000.0 pts
March 2020154,000.0 pts
February 2020138,000.0 pts
January 2020110,000.0 pts
December 2019164,000.0 pts
November 2019163,000.0 pts
October 2019141,000.0 pts
September 2019109,000.0 pts
August 2019121,000.0 pts
July 2019136,000.0 pts
June 2019122,000.0 pts
May 2019154,000.0 pts
April 2019172,000.0 pts
March 2019176,000.0 pts
February 2019156,000.0 pts
January 2019156,000.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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