AgenticInvestor

Indonesia Export Prices

Indonesia · Monthly series · EC-ID-EP

Latest, December 2024

196.9 pts

+1.3% from November 2024

Open interactive chartIndonesia Export Prices in the app

225173.7122.5January 2015December 2025
History through December 2024, the forecast path to December 2025 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2025: 200.8 pts, with an 80% interval of 179.9 pts to 221.4 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 2025198.1 pts191.7 pts204.7 pts
February 2025198.5 pts187.3 pts210.3 pts
March 2025198.8 pts181.7 pts216.6 pts
April 2025198.9 pts179.8 pts218.6 pts
May 2025199.1 pts177.9 pts220.7 pts
June 2025199.3 pts180.9 pts217.9 pts
July 2025199.5 pts178.1 pts221.0 pts
August 2025199.6 pts181.1 pts218.0 pts
September 2025199.8 pts175.1 pts224.8 pts
October 2025200.2 pts175.7 pts224.7 pts
November 2025200.6 pts175.8 pts225.0 pts
December 2025200.8 pts179.9 pts221.4 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+5%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)
Direction
62%No clear edge over a coin flip (90 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
6 of 48Anticipated some turns (48 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
5% lowerError ratio 0.95; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2013-01-01 to 2024-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 93% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2015.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 2024196.9 pts
November 2024194.4 pts
October 2024193.4 pts
September 2024191.4 pts
August 2024194.8 pts
July 2024199.7 pts
June 2024197.4 pts
May 2024197.1 pts
April 2024202.1 pts
March 2024196.1 pts
February 2024189.8 pts
January 2024187.1 pts
December 2023185.5 pts
November 2023187.5 pts
October 2023192.5 pts
September 2023194.5 pts
August 2023188.1 pts
July 2023181.3 pts
June 2023175.8 pts
May 2023180.7 pts
April 2023183.6 pts
March 2023180.9 pts
February 2023183.8 pts
January 2023181.8 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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