Indonesia Fiscal Expenditure

Name: Indonesia Fiscal Expenditure
Creator: Agentic Investor

Indonesia · Annual series · EC-ID-FE

Latest, 2025

3,451.40T IDR

+3.0% from 2024

Open interactive chartIndonesia Fiscal Expenditure in the app

History through 2025, the forecast path to 2028 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2028: 3,821.95T IDR, with an 80% interval of 3,117.44T IDR to 4,552.76T IDR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2026	3,553.87T IDR	3,130.71T IDR	3,964.95T IDR
2027	3,689.28T IDR	3,168.37T IDR	4,206.80T IDR
2028	3,821.95T IDR	3,117.44T IDR	4,552.76T IDR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +35%Beats the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 8 won)
Direction: 96%Beats a coin flip (23 of 24 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (3 turns, 8 needed) (3 turns in 8 tests, 6 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 35% lowerError ratio 0.65; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 8 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2002-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

That is the highest of the 10 readings since 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2025	3,451.40T IDR
2024	3,350.30T IDR
2023	3,121.90T IDR
2022	3,096.30T IDR
2021	2,786.41T IDR
2020	2,595.48T IDR
2019	2,309.29T IDR
2018	2,213.12T IDR
2017	2,007.35T IDR
2016	1,864.28T IDR
2015	1,806.52T IDR
2014	1,777.18T IDR
2013	1,650.56T IDR
2012	1,491.41T IDR
2011	1,295.00T IDR
2010	1,042.12T IDR
2009	937.38T IDR
2008	985.77T IDR
2007	757.65T IDR
2006	667.13T IDR
2005	509.63T IDR
2004	427.18T IDR
2003	376.50T IDR
2002	322.18T IDR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.