AgenticIndonesia GDP YoY
Indonesia · Quarterly series · EC-ID-GDPYY
Latest, Q3 2026
5.5%
+0.18pp from Q2 2026
Forecast
Forecast for Q3 2027: 5.3%, with an 80% interval of 4.1% to 6.6%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% |
| Q1 2027 | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% |
| Q2 2027 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| Q3 2027 | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.6% |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +22%Beats the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 7 won)
- Direction
- 84%No clear edge over a coin flip (27 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)
- Turning points
- 7 of 13Anticipated most turns (13 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 22% lowerError ratio 0.78; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 7 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2018-12-01 to 2026-09-014 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 92% of the 39 earlier readings since Q4 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 5.0% |
| Q2 2025 | 5.1% |
| Q1 2025 | 4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | 5.0% |
| Q3 2024 | 5.0% |
| Q2 2024 | 5.0% |
| Q1 2024 | 5.1% |
| Q4 2023 | 5.0% |
| Q3 2023 | 4.9% |
| Q2 2023 | 5.2% |
| Q1 2023 | 5.0% |
| Q4 2022 | 5.0% |
| Q3 2022 | 5.7% |
| Q2 2022 | 5.5% |
| Q1 2022 | 5.0% |
| Q4 2021 | 5.0% |
| Q3 2021 | 3.5% |
| Q2 2021 | 7.1% |
| Q1 2021 | -0.7% |
| Q4 2020 | -2.2% |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
More from Agentic Investor
- Open Indonesia GDP YoY in the app: the interactive chart and a fresh forecast
- World and commodity series: every stored series
- Vietnam indicators
Also stored for Indonesia
- Indonesia Balance Of Trade
- Indonesia Business Confidence Index
- Indonesia CPI Housing Utilities
- Indonesia CPI Transportation
- Indonesia Capacity Utilization
- Indonesia Capital Flows
- Indonesia Car Production
- Indonesia Car Registrations
- Indonesia Cash Reserve Ratio
- Indonesia Central Bank Lending Rate
- Indonesia Changes In Inventories
- Indonesia Composite Leading Indicator