AgenticInvestor

Indonesia Gold Production

Indonesia · Monthly series · EC-ID-GP

Latest, December 2019

8,570.0 pts

-8.2% from November 2019

Open interactive chartIndonesia Gold Production in the app

13.33K72001068January 2010December 2020
History through December 2019, the forecast path to December 2020 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2020: 8,713.8 pts, with an 80% interval of 6,211.9 pts to 11,468.0 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 20208,778.2 pts7,631.5 pts9,943.1 pts
February 20208,154.9 pts6,633.4 pts9,740.3 pts
March 20208,018.9 pts5,512.4 pts10,661.3 pts
April 20208,214.1 pts5,088.4 pts11,504.9 pts
May 20208,549.2 pts4,634.5 pts12,662.3 pts
June 20208,479.7 pts4,819.0 pts12,414.6 pts
July 20209,066.4 pts6,276.1 pts12,044.5 pts
August 20209,168.5 pts6,149.6 pts12,371.0 pts
September 20209,140.7 pts6,134.1 pts12,362.5 pts
October 20208,694.2 pts6,158.7 pts11,428.0 pts
November 20208,669.7 pts6,477.3 pts11,071.5 pts
December 20208,713.8 pts6,211.9 pts11,468.0 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+7%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
Direction
66%No clear edge over a coin flip (95 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
41 of 62Anticipated most turns (62 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
7% lowerError ratio 0.93; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2008-01-01 to 2019-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 70% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2010.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 20198,570.0 pts
November 20199,340.0 pts
October 20199,760.0 pts
September 201911,200.0 pts
August 201910,480.0 pts
July 20198,840.0 pts
June 20197,510.0 pts
May 20198,640.0 pts
April 20197,100.0 pts
March 20198,490.0 pts
February 20198,120.0 pts
January 201910,640.0 pts
December 20185,964.0 pts
November 20185,594.0 pts
October 20185,780.0 pts
September 201811,112.0 pts
August 201811,543.0 pts
July 201811,592.0 pts
June 201811,385.0 pts
May 201810,094.0 pts
April 20189,754.0 pts
March 20188,527.0 pts
February 20189,428.0 pts
January 201811,095.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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