Indonesia Money Supply M1
Indonesia · Monthly series · EC-ID-M1
Latest, September 2026
3,391.91T IDR
+1.7% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 3,703.26T IDR, with an 80% interval of 3,377.04T IDR to 4,491.92T IDR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 3,469.10T IDR | 3,406.86T IDR | 3,544.28T IDR |
| November 2026 | 3,515.31T IDR | 3,309.27T IDR | 3,800.97T IDR |
| December 2026 | 3,568.00T IDR | 3,188.04T IDR | 4,129.11T IDR |
| January 2027 | 3,549.00T IDR | 3,258.55T IDR | 3,997.50T IDR |
| February 2027 | 3,550.85T IDR | 3,358.70T IDR | 3,863.84T IDR |
| March 2027 | 3,568.11T IDR | 3,317.34T IDR | 4,002.21T IDR |
| April 2027 | 3,589.18T IDR | 3,437.88T IDR | 3,890.97T IDR |
| May 2027 | 3,602.20T IDR | 3,419.45T IDR | 3,971.36T IDR |
| June 2027 | 3,623.28T IDR | 3,408.75T IDR | 4,117.20T IDR |
| July 2027 | 3,630.29T IDR | 3,324.16T IDR | 4,322.49T IDR |
| August 2027 | 3,657.99T IDR | 3,375.40T IDR | 4,341.25T IDR |
| September 2027 | 3,703.26T IDR | 3,377.04T IDR | 4,491.92T IDR |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +15%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
- Direction
- 84%Beats a coin flip (121 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 38 of 61Anticipated most turns (61 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 15% lowerError ratio 0.85; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 76% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 3,391.91T IDR |
| August 2026 | 3,333.82T IDR |
| July 2026 | 3,311.08T IDR |
| June 2026 | 3,318.34T IDR |
| May 2026 | 3,438.11T IDR |
| April 2026 | 3,342.54T IDR |
| March 2026 | 3,423.53T IDR |
| February 2026 | 3,340.67T IDR |
| January 2026 | 3,379.66T IDR |
| December 2025 | 3,386.92T IDR |
| November 2025 | 3,237.68T IDR |
| October 2025 | 3,105.23T IDR |
| September 2025 | 3,087.15T IDR |
| August 2025 | 3,054.65T IDR |
| July 2025 | 2,940.26T IDR |
| June 2025 | 2,955.11T IDR |
| May 2025 | 2,836.02T IDR |
| April 2025 | 2,803.83T IDR |
| March 2025 | 2,842.70T IDR |
| February 2025 | 2,774.90T IDR |
| January 2025 | 2,790.38T IDR |
| December 2024 | 2,839.54T IDR |
| November 2024 | 2,822.30T IDR |
| October 2024 | 2,697.74T IDR |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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Also stored for Indonesia
- Indonesia Balance Of Trade
- Indonesia Business Confidence Index
- Indonesia CPI Housing Utilities
- Indonesia CPI Transportation
- Indonesia Capacity Utilization
- Indonesia Capital Flows
- Indonesia Car Production
- Indonesia Car Registrations
- Indonesia Cash Reserve Ratio
- Indonesia Central Bank Lending Rate
- Indonesia Changes In Inventories
- Indonesia Composite Leading Indicator