Ireland Business Confidence Index

Name: Ireland Business Confidence Index
Creator: Agentic Investor

Ireland · Monthly series · EC-IE-BCOI

Latest, January 2023

21.8%

+11.60pp from December 2022

Open interactive chartIreland Business Confidence Index in the app

History through January 2023, the forecast path to January 2024 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for January 2024: 13.9%, with an 80% interval of 2.3% to 23.9%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
February 2023	16.6%	10.3%	22.5%
March 2023	15.5%	5.3%	25.2%
April 2023	15.0%	1.9%	27.4%
May 2023	14.8%	7.0%	21.8%
June 2023	14.6%	8.6%	20.0%
July 2023	14.5%	-5.3%	32.4%
August 2023	14.2%	-1.1%	28.0%
September 2023	14.2%	1.0%	25.7%
October 2023	14.1%	-0.9%	27.4%
November 2023	14.0%	-0.0%	26.3%
December 2023	14.0%	3.2%	23.3%
January 2024	13.9%	2.3%	23.9%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +2%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 5 won)
Direction: 55%No clear edge over a coin flip (79 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points: 9 of 74Anticipated some turns (74 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 2% lowerError ratio 0.98; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 5 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2011-02-01 to 2023-01-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2023-01-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 82% of the 119 earlier readings since February 2013.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
January 2023	21.8%
December 2022	10.2%
November 2022	3.5%
October 2022	6.7%
September 2022	9.8%
August 2022	7.5%
July 2022	2.0%
June 2022	17.1%
May 2022	4.7%
April 2022	10.5%
March 2022	11.2%
February 2022	14.5%
January 2022	15.6%
December 2021	14.1%
November 2021	18.7%
October 2021	23.9%
September 2021	21.9%
August 2021	22.3%
July 2021	28.0%
June 2021	22.6%
May 2021	19.9%
April 2021	17.3%
March 2021	7.4%
February 2021	2.3%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.