Iceland Balance Of Trade

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+14%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)

Direction

67%No clear edge over a coin flip (96 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)

Turning points

61 of 89Anticipated most turns (89 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

14% lowerError ratio 0.86; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2014-08-01 to 2026-07-0112 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-07-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.