AgenticKuwait Fiscal Expenditure
Kuwait · Monthly series · EC-KW-FE
Latest, December 2015
1.39B KWD
+52.9% from November 2015
Forecast
Forecast for December 2016: 1.48B KWD, with an 80% interval of 814.01M KWD to 2.74B KWD.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2016 | 1.16B KWD | 375.22M KWD | 2.32B KWD |
| February 2016 | 974.83M KWD | 45.43M KWD | 2.84B KWD |
| March 2016 | 6.06B KWD | -17.18B KWD | 29.08B KWD |
| April 2016 | 435.67M KWD | 50.65M KWD | 1.15B KWD |
| May 2016 | 477.52M KWD | 380.77M KWD | 662.40M KWD |
| June 2016 | 786.63M KWD | 118.69M KWD | 2.14B KWD |
| July 2016 | 1.10B KWD | 421.29M KWD | 2.10B KWD |
| August 2016 | 1.24B KWD | 521.39M KWD | 2.08B KWD |
| September 2016 | 1.08B KWD | 513.99M KWD | 1.98B KWD |
| October 2016 | 1.17B KWD | 147.72M KWD | 2.54B KWD |
| November 2016 | 1.13B KWD | 486.15M KWD | 2.32B KWD |
| December 2016 | 1.48B KWD | 814.01M KWD | 2.74B KWD |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +31%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 9 won)
- Direction
- 69%No clear edge over a coin flip (99 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 67 of 88Anticipated most turns (88 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 31% lowerError ratio 0.69; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 9 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2004-01-01 to 2015-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2015-12-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 82% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2006.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| December 2015 | 1.39B KWD |
| November 2015 | 910.70M KWD |
| October 2015 | 953.00M KWD |
| September 2015 | 577.20M KWD |
| August 2015 | 1.04B KWD |
| July 2015 | 1.55B KWD |
| June 2015 | 701.20M KWD |
| May 2015 | 535.00M KWD |
| April 2015 | 374.70M KWD |
| March 2015 | 8.14B KWD |
| February 2015 | 1.36B KWD |
| January 2015 | 1.34B KWD |
| December 2014 | 2.08B KWD |
| November 2014 | 956.60M KWD |
| October 2014 | 1.42B KWD |
| September 2014 | 1.63B KWD |
| August 2014 | 2.00B KWD |
| July 2014 | 779.20M KWD |
| June 2014 | 696.60M KWD |
| May 2014 | 490.50M KWD |
| April 2014 | 522.60M KWD |
| March 2014 | 7.60B KWD |
| February 2014 | 720.50M KWD |
| January 2014 | 939.60M KWD |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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