AgenticInvestor

Lebanon Fiscal Expenditure

Lebanon · Monthly series · EC-LB-FE

Latest, December 2021

1.52T LBP

+25.8% from November 2021

Open interactive chartLebanon Fiscal Expenditure in the app

2.798T1.737T676.9BJanuary 2012December 2022
History through December 2021, the forecast path to December 2022 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2022: 1.46T LBP, with an 80% interval of 853.74B LBP to 2.14T LBP.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 20221.35T LBP1.05T LBP1.68T LBP
February 20221.18T LBP778.41B LBP1.67T LBP
March 20221.34T LBP676.91B LBP2.08T LBP
April 20221.24T LBP991.54B LBP1.53T LBP
May 20221.26T LBP798.29B LBP1.82T LBP
June 20221.32T LBP1.03T LBP1.66T LBP
July 20221.27T LBP832.57B LBP1.79T LBP
August 20221.24T LBP835.25B LBP1.74T LBP
September 20221.32T LBP863.15B LBP1.86T LBP
October 20221.27T LBP874.42B LBP1.75T LBP
November 20221.36T LBP849.33B LBP1.97T LBP
December 20221.46T LBP853.74B LBP2.14T LBP

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+32%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 10 won)
Direction
78%No clear edge over a coin flip (112 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
66 of 83Anticipated most turns (83 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
32% lowerError ratio 0.68; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2010-01-01 to 2021-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 46% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2012.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 20211.52T LBP
November 20211.21T LBP
October 20211.08T LBP
September 20211.20T LBP
August 20211.25T LBP
July 20211.64T LBP
June 20211.45T LBP
May 20211.06T LBP
April 20211.23T LBP
March 20211.42T LBP
February 20211.03T LBP
January 20211.63T LBP
December 20201.78T LBP
November 20201.26T LBP
October 20201.37T LBP
September 20201.23T LBP
August 20201.52T LBP
July 2020903.19B LBP
June 20201.19T LBP
May 20201.08T LBP
April 20201.25T LBP
March 20201.52T LBP
February 20201.65T LBP
January 20202.41T LBP

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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