Sri Lanka Fiscal Expenditure

Name: Sri Lanka Fiscal Expenditure
Creator: Agentic Investor

Sri Lanka · Annual series · EC-LK-FE

Latest, 2025

6.23T LKR

+1.6% from 2024

Open interactive chartSri Lanka Fiscal Expenditure in the app

History through 2025, the forecast path to 2028 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2028: 6.69T LKR, with an 80% interval of 807.02B LKR to 10.67T LKR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2026	6.29T LKR	4.69T LKR	7.27T LKR
2027	6.49T LKR	549.48B LKR	10.05T LKR
2028	6.69T LKR	807.02B LKR	10.67T LKR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +22%Beats the no-change baseline over 9 tests (9 tests, 8 won)
Direction: 89%Beats a coin flip (24 of 27 calls right in 9 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (0 turns, 8 needed) (0 turns in 9 tests, 8 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 22% lowerError ratio 0.78; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 8 / 9Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 1999-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

That is the highest of the 10 readings since 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2025	6.23T LKR
2024	6.13T LKR
2023	5.36T LKR
2022	4.59T LKR
2021	3.52T LKR
2020	3.04T LKR
2019	2.92T LKR
2018	2.69T LKR
2017	2.57T LKR
2016	2.33T LKR
2015	2.29T LKR
2014	1.80T LKR
2013	1.67T LKR
2012	1.56T LKR
2011	1.43T LKR
2010	1.28T LKR
2009	1.20T LKR
2008	996.13B LKR
2007	841.60B LKR
2006	713.65B LKR
2005	584.78B LKR
2004	476.91B LKR
2003	417.67B LKR
2002	402.99B LKR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.