Lesotho Government Debt To GDP

Name: Lesotho Government Debt To GDP
Creator: Agentic Investor

Lesotho · Annual series · EC-LS-GDG

Latest, 2025

49.4%

-3.18pp from 2024

Open interactive chartLesotho Government Debt To GDP in the app

History through 2025, the forecast path to 2028 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2028: 47.3%, with an 80% interval of 29.0% to 67.9%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2026	48.3%	43.7%	53.4%
2027	47.7%	35.0%	61.8%
2028	47.3%	29.0%	67.9%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Weak evidence

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: -16%Trails the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 0 won)
Direction: 28%No clear edge over a coin flip (5 of 18 calls right in 6 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (3 turns, 8 needed) (3 turns in 6 tests, 2 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 16% higherError ratio 1.16; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 0 / 6Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2008-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 33% of the 9 earlier readings since 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2025	49.4%
2024	52.5%
2023	61.0%
2022	64.6%
2021	58.0%
2020	54.7%
2019	58.2%
2018	48.2%
2017	41.0%
2016	41.5%
2015	45.8%
2014	41.5%
2013	41.2%
2012	39.9%
2011	36.2%
2010	33.8%
2009	35.9%
2008	47.0%
2007	49.6%
2006	43.7%
2005	41.0%
2004	49.4%
2003	52.6%
2002	79.6%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.