Lesotho Military Expenditure

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+4%Matches the no-change baseline over 10 tests (10 tests, 5 won)

Direction

53%No clear edge over a coin flip (16 of 30 calls right in 10 tests)

Turning points

n/aToo few tests (7 turns, 8 needed) (7 turns in 10 tests, 2 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

4% lowerError ratio 0.96; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

5 / 10Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

1996-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

87%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.