Luxembourg Foreign Exchange Reserves
Luxembourg · Monthly series · EC-LU-FER
Latest, September 2026
2.72B EUR
-0.8% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 2.74B EUR, with an 80% interval of 2.54B EUR to 2.88B EUR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 2.74B EUR | 2.70B EUR | 2.79B EUR |
| November 2026 | 2.74B EUR | 2.67B EUR | 2.83B EUR |
| December 2026 | 2.74B EUR | 2.65B EUR | 2.85B EUR |
| January 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.64B EUR | 2.86B EUR |
| February 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.61B EUR | 2.89B EUR |
| March 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.63B EUR | 2.85B EUR |
| April 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.55B EUR | 2.93B EUR |
| May 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.53B EUR | 2.94B EUR |
| June 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.52B EUR | 2.94B EUR |
| July 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.44B EUR | 2.98B EUR |
| August 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.45B EUR | 2.96B EUR |
| September 2027 | 2.74B EUR | 2.54B EUR | 2.88B EUR |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- -3%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 5 won)
- Direction
- 45%No clear edge over a coin flip (65 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 23 of 70Anticipated some turns (70 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 3% higherError ratio 1.03; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 5 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 62% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 2.72B EUR |
| August 2026 | 2.75B EUR |
| July 2026 | 2.74B EUR |
| June 2026 | 2.87B EUR |
| May 2026 | 2.74B EUR |
| April 2026 | 2.75B EUR |
| March 2026 | 2.71B EUR |
| February 2026 | 2.75B EUR |
| January 2026 | 2.78B EUR |
| December 2025 | 2.74B EUR |
| November 2025 | 2.72B EUR |
| October 2025 | 2.73B EUR |
| September 2025 | 2.76B EUR |
| August 2025 | 2.76B EUR |
| July 2025 | 2.72B EUR |
| June 2025 | 2.77B EUR |
| May 2025 | 2.74B EUR |
| April 2025 | 2.75B EUR |
| March 2025 | 2.67B EUR |
| February 2025 | 2.65B EUR |
| January 2025 | 2.62B EUR |
| December 2024 | 2.60B EUR |
| November 2024 | 2.62B EUR |
| October 2024 | 2.88B EUR |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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