Libya Money Supply M2
Libya · Monthly series · EC-LY-M2
Latest, September 2026
209.66B LYD
+3.6% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 214.08B LYD, with an 80% interval of 148.46B LYD to 285.90B LYD.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 209.56B LYD | 200.44B LYD | 219.66B LYD |
| November 2026 | 210.11B LYD | 193.42B LYD | 229.22B LYD |
| December 2026 | 210.53B LYD | 187.58B LYD | 236.43B LYD |
| January 2027 | 211.10B LYD | 184.10B LYD | 241.63B LYD |
| February 2027 | 211.67B LYD | 181.97B LYD | 243.49B LYD |
| March 2027 | 211.88B LYD | 168.46B LYD | 259.84B LYD |
| April 2027 | 212.17B LYD | 168.81B LYD | 259.06B LYD |
| May 2027 | 212.63B LYD | 167.08B LYD | 261.64B LYD |
| June 2027 | 213.02B LYD | 162.73B LYD | 266.27B LYD |
| July 2027 | 213.39B LYD | 169.70B LYD | 260.52B LYD |
| August 2027 | 213.83B LYD | 163.53B LYD | 267.93B LYD |
| September 2027 | 214.08B LYD | 148.46B LYD | 285.90B LYD |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- -1%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 6 won)
- Direction
- 56%No clear edge over a coin flip (81 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 5 of 56Anticipated some turns (56 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 1% higherError ratio 1.01; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 6 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 95% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 209.66B LYD |
| August 2026 | 202.43B LYD |
| July 2026 | 205.77B LYD |
| June 2026 | 210.14B LYD |
| May 2026 | 224.13B LYD |
| April 2026 | 210.54B LYD |
| March 2026 | 217.86B LYD |
| February 2026 | 219.89B LYD |
| January 2026 | 215.04B LYD |
| December 2025 | 204.49B LYD |
| November 2025 | 196.29B LYD |
| October 2025 | 187.15B LYD |
| September 2025 | 191.95B LYD |
| August 2025 | 161.90B LYD |
| July 2025 | 167.60B LYD |
| June 2025 | 168.72B LYD |
| May 2025 | 169.93B LYD |
| April 2025 | 165.00B LYD |
| March 2025 | 158.19B LYD |
| February 2025 | 153.97B LYD |
| January 2025 | 160.00B LYD |
| December 2024 | 159.64B LYD |
| November 2024 | 168.83B LYD |
| October 2024 | 163.14B LYD |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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