AgenticMontenegro Construction Output YoY
Montenegro · Quarterly series · EC-ME-COUT
Latest, Q2 2026
6.3%
+1.20pp from Q1 2026
Forecast
Forecast for Q2 2027: 7.1%, with an 80% interval of 1.7% to 12.6%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.3% | 2.7% | 9.7% |
| Q4 2026 | 6.6% | -2.8% | 15.6% |
| Q1 2027 | 6.9% | -1.8% | 15.7% |
| Q2 2027 | 7.1% | 1.7% | 12.6% |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +10%Matches the no-change baseline over 7 tests (7 tests, 3 won)
- Direction
- 43%No clear edge over a coin flip (12 of 28 calls right in 7 tests)
- Turning points
- 4 of 13Anticipated some turns (13 turns in 7 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 10% lowerError ratio 0.90; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 3 / 7Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2019-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-06-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 67% of the 39 earlier readings since Q3 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 5.9% |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | 2.3% |
| Q3 2024 | 1.2% |
| Q2 2024 | 2.8% |
| Q1 2024 | 3.4% |
| Q4 2023 | -3.1% |
| Q3 2023 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2023 | -11.8% |
| Q1 2023 | -7.0% |
| Q4 2022 | -8.1% |
| Q3 2022 | -5.4% |
| Q2 2022 | 1.5% |
| Q1 2022 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2021 | -7.9% |
| Q3 2021 | -7.5% |
| Q2 2021 | -1.8% |
| Q1 2021 | -0.8% |
| Q4 2020 | 1.1% |
| Q3 2020 | -9.6% |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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Also stored for Montenegro
- Montenegro Balance Of Trade
- Montenegro Building Permits
- Montenegro CPI Housing Utilities
- Montenegro CPI Transportation
- Montenegro Capital Flows
- Montenegro Changes In Inventories
- Montenegro Consumer Credit
- Montenegro Consumer Price Index
- Montenegro Consumer Spending
- Montenegro Corporate Tax Rate
- Montenegro Corruption Index
- Montenegro Corruption Rank