AgenticInvestor

Mongolia Consumer Spending

Mongolia · Quarterly series · EC-MN-CS

Latest, Q2 2026

5.90T MNT

-7.2% from Q1 2026

Open interactive chartMongolia Consumer Spending in the app

7.544T5.314T3.083TQ1 2015Q2 2027
History through Q2 2026, the forecast path to Q2 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for Q2 2027: 5.98T MNT, with an 80% interval of 4.45T MNT to 7.36T MNT.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
Q3 20266.01T MNT4.41T MNT7.54T MNT
Q4 20265.98T MNT5.32T MNT6.62T MNT
Q1 20275.97T MNT5.05T MNT6.83T MNT
Q2 20275.98T MNT4.45T MNT7.36T MNT

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Limited evidence

At least 6 complete tests are required; 5 are available.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
n/aToo few tests (5 tests, 6 needed) (5 tests, 1 won)
Direction
n/aToo few tests (5 tests, 6 needed) (10 of 20 calls right in 5 tests)
Turning points
n/aToo few tests (5 tests, 6 needed) (12 turns in 5 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
2% higherError ratio 1.02; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
1 / 5Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2021-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
85%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 85% of the 39 earlier readings since Q3 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
Q2 20265.90T MNT
Q1 20266.35T MNT
Q4 20256.26T MNT
Q3 20256.59T MNT
Q2 20256.20T MNT
Q1 20255.99T MNT
Q4 20245.74T MNT
Q3 20246.00T MNT
Q2 20245.76T MNT
Q1 20245.38T MNT
Q4 20235.41T MNT
Q3 20235.24T MNT
Q2 20234.71T MNT
Q1 20234.48T MNT
Q4 20224.74T MNT
Q3 20224.79T MNT
Q2 20224.46T MNT
Q1 20224.48T MNT
Q4 20214.36T MNT
Q3 20214.41T MNT
Q2 20214.22T MNT
Q1 20214.10T MNT
Q4 20204.26T MNT
Q3 20204.73T MNT

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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