AgenticInvestor

Malta Business Confidence Index

Malta · Monthly series · EC-MT-BCOI

Latest, April 2026

107.5%

-7.30pp from March 2026

Open interactive chartMalta Business Confidence Index in the app

12287.7553.5May 2016April 2027
History through April 2026, the forecast path to April 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for April 2027: 105.4%, with an 80% interval of 87.9% to 120.1%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
May 2026108.3%101.7%114.5%
June 2026108.0%102.6%112.9%
July 2026107.6%99.0%115.0%
August 2026107.2%93.6%118.9%
September 2026106.9%89.7%121.4%
October 2026106.5%92.0%119.0%
November 2026106.2%92.8%117.7%
December 2026106.0%95.6%114.8%
January 2027105.8%96.8%113.5%
February 2027105.7%90.8%118.2%
March 2027105.5%89.6%119.0%
April 2027105.4%87.9%120.1%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+23%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 6 won)
Direction
58%No clear edge over a coin flip (83 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
11 of 70Anticipated some turns (70 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
23% lowerError ratio 0.77; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
6 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-05-01 to 2026-04-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 60% of the 119 earlier readings since May 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
April 2026107.5%
March 2026114.8%
February 2026112.3%
January 2026122.0%
December 2025119.6%
November 2025112.1%
October 2025112.1%
September 2025114.4%
August 2025103.7%
July 202597.1%
June 2025106.5%
May 202597.5%
April 2025108.1%
March 2025109.1%
February 202595.1%
January 202599.1%
December 202493.0%
November 2024109.5%
October 2024102.8%
September 202486.5%
August 202498.0%
July 202496.6%
June 202497.3%
May 202497.2%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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