AgenticInvestor

Mauritius External Debt

Mauritius · Quarterly series · EC-MU-ED

Latest, Q2 2026

98.57B MUR

-1.1% from Q1 2026

Open interactive chartMauritius External Debt in the app

119.6B62.88B6.185BQ4 1983Q2 2027
History through Q2 2026, the forecast path to Q2 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for Q2 2027: 99.76B MUR, with an 80% interval of 78.95B MUR to 119.58B MUR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
Q3 202699.01B MUR81.30B MUR118.12B MUR
Q4 202699.01B MUR89.16B MUR109.57B MUR
Q1 202799.22B MUR80.22B MUR119.13B MUR
Q2 202799.76B MUR78.95B MUR119.58B MUR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
0%Matches the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 3 won)
Direction
56%No clear edge over a coin flip (18 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points
1 of 14Anticipated some turns (14 turns in 8 tests, 1 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
About the sameError ratio 1.00; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
3 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2018-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
84%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 95% of the 39 earlier readings since Q3 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
Q2 202698.57B MUR
Q1 202699.67B MUR
Q4 202598.83B MUR
Q3 202596.99B MUR
Q2 202597.13B MUR
Q1 202594.55B MUR
Q4 202496.73B MUR
Q3 202497.02B MUR
Q2 202485.46B MUR
Q1 202485.55B MUR
Q4 202383.95B MUR
Q3 202379.52B MUR
Q2 202383.87B MUR
Q1 202385.84B MUR
Q4 202281.79B MUR
Q3 202275.86B MUR
Q2 202284.46B MUR
Q1 202288.65B MUR
Q4 202189.71B MUR
Q3 202179.62B MUR
Q2 202185.11B MUR
Q1 202183.26B MUR
Q4 202068.74B MUR
Q3 202067.91B MUR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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