Mauritius Remittances
Mauritius · Quarterly series · EC-MU-REM
Latest, Q1 2025
14.54M MUR
-9.8% from Q4 2024
Forecast
Forecast for Q1 2026: 16.21M MUR, with an 80% interval of 12.56M MUR to 20.21M MUR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 15.82M MUR | 13.05M MUR | 18.95M MUR |
| Q3 2025 | 16.15M MUR | 12.88M MUR | 19.72M MUR |
| Q4 2025 | 16.26M MUR | 12.71M MUR | 20.14M MUR |
| Q1 2026 | 16.21M MUR | 12.56M MUR | 20.21M MUR |
AI confidence
Limited evidenceAt least 6 complete tests are required; 2 are available.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (2 tests, 1 won)
- Direction
- n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (6 of 8 calls right in 2 tests)
- Turning points
- n/aToo few tests (2 tests, 6 needed) (3 turns in 2 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 7% lowerError ratio 0.93; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 1 / 2Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2023-06-01 to 2025-03-014 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 100%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- The 80% band held more than expected outcomes; interpret its width with care.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-03-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 12% of the 32 earlier readings since Q1 2017.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 14.54M MUR |
| Q4 2024 | 16.12M MUR |
| Q3 2024 | 17.49M MUR |
| Q2 2024 | 17.79M MUR |
| Q1 2024 | 16.96M MUR |
| Q4 2023 | 16.69M MUR |
| Q3 2023 | 16.41M MUR |
| Q2 2023 | 17.75M MUR |
| Q1 2023 | 16.17M MUR |
| Q4 2022 | 16.28M MUR |
| Q3 2022 | 17.83M MUR |
| Q2 2022 | 16.51M MUR |
| Q1 2022 | 13.12M MUR |
| Q4 2021 | 23.85M MUR |
| Q3 2021 | 18.39M MUR |
| Q2 2021 | 12.74M MUR |
| Q1 2021 | 15.42M MUR |
| Q4 2020 | 22.17M MUR |
| Q3 2020 | 21.19M MUR |
| Q2 2020 | 14.76M MUR |
| Q1 2020 | 19.84M MUR |
| Q4 2019 | 20.10M MUR |
| Q3 2019 | 18.34M MUR |
| Q2 2019 | 20.36M MUR |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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Also stored for Mauritius
- Mauritius Balance Of Trade
- Mauritius Bank Lending Rate
- Mauritius Banks Balance Sheet
- Mauritius Business Confidence Index
- Mauritius CPI Housing Utilities
- Mauritius CPI Transportation
- Mauritius Capital Flows
- Mauritius Central Bank Balance Sheet
- Mauritius Central Bank Lending Rate
- Mauritius Changes In Inventories
- Mauritius Consumer Price Index
- Mauritius Consumer Spending