Maldives Business Confidence Index

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+68%Beats the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 6 won)

Direction

88%No clear edge over a coin flip (21 of 24 calls right in 6 tests)

Turning points

10 of 10Anticipated most turns (10 turns in 6 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

68% lowerError ratio 0.32; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

6 / 6Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2020-06-01 to 2026-03-014 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-03-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.