AgenticInvestor

Malawi Government Revenues

Malawi · Monthly series · EC-MW-GR

Latest, July 2026

692.50B MWK

-21.7% from June 2026

Open interactive chartMalawi Government Revenues in the app

1.918T868.4B-181.4BAugust 2016July 2027
History through July 2026, the forecast path to July 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for July 2027: 748.27B MWK, with an 80% interval of 338.44B MWK to 1.35T MWK.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
August 2026512.23B MWK303.31B MWK830.99B MWK
September 2026620.33B MWK470.83B MWK831.24B MWK
October 2026659.38B MWK419.73B MWK986.32B MWK
November 2026586.54B MWK417.80B MWK841.09B MWK
December 2026693.41B MWK-181.40B MWK1.92T MWK
January 2027698.69B MWK344.44B MWK1.20T MWK
February 2027588.75B MWK355.97B MWK939.14B MWK
March 2027680.13B MWK200.99B MWK1.35T MWK
April 2027724.70B MWK388.98B MWK1.19T MWK
May 2027643.83B MWK330.40B MWK1.14T MWK
June 2027739.69B MWK522.05B MWK1.06T MWK
July 2027748.27B MWK338.44B MWK1.35T MWK

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+24%Beats the no-change baseline over 7 tests (7 tests, 5 won)
Direction
62%No clear edge over a coin flip (52 of 84 calls right in 7 tests)
Turning points
45 of 51Anticipated most turns (51 turns in 7 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
24% lowerError ratio 0.76; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
5 / 7Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2019-08-01 to 2026-07-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 98% of the 119 earlier readings since August 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
July 2026692.50B MWK
June 2026884.40B MWK
May 2026480.50B MWK
April 2026634.40B MWK
March 2026504.80B MWK
February 2026376.10B MWK
January 2026711.20B MWK
December 2025464.40B MWK
November 2025422.10B MWK
October 2025566.70B MWK
September 2025398.30B MWK
August 2025424.00B MWK
July 2025647.40B MWK
June 2025392.10B MWK
May 2025348.40B MWK
April 2025435.10B MWK
March 2025345.30B MWK
February 2025302.70B MWK
January 2025515.60B MWK
December 2024351.00B MWK
November 2024341.60B MWK
October 2024361.00B MWK
September 2024299.80B MWK
August 2024329.70B MWK

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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