Nigeria Current Account

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-7%Matches the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 3 won)

Direction

50%No clear edge over a coin flip (12 of 24 calls right in 6 tests)

Turning points

0 of 8Anticipated no turn, as the no-change baseline does (8 turns in 6 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

7% higherError ratio 1.07; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

3 / 6Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2020-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-06-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.