New Zealand Consumer Spending

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-18%Trails the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 2 won)

Direction

66%No clear edge over a coin flip (21 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)

Turning points

0 of 9Anticipated no turn, as the no-change baseline does (9 turns in 8 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

18% higherError ratio 1.18; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

2 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2018-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-06-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.