New Zealand GDP YoY

Name: New Zealand GDP YoY
Creator: Agentic Investor

New Zealand · Quarterly series · EC-NZ-GDPYY

Latest, Q2 2026

2.6%

+0.90pp from Q1 2026

Open interactive chartNew Zealand GDP YoY in the app

History through Q2 2026, the forecast path to Q2 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for Q2 2027: 2.3%, with an 80% interval of -2.2% to 6.8%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
Q3 2026	2.4%	0.1%	4.7%
Q4 2026	2.6%	-0.3%	5.3%
Q1 2027	2.4%	-0.4%	5.3%
Q2 2027	2.3%	-2.2%	6.8%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +5%Matches the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 5 won)
Direction: 68%No clear edge over a coin flip (21 of 31 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points: 7 of 15Anticipated some turns (15 turns in 8 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 5% lowerError ratio 0.95; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 5 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2018-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-06-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 49% of the 39 earlier readings since Q3 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
Q2 2026	2.6%
Q1 2026	1.7%
Q4 2025	1.6%
Q3 2025	1.2%
Q2 2025	-0.9%
Q1 2025	-0.7%
Q4 2024	-1.6%
Q3 2024	-1.2%
Q2 2024	0.1%
Q1 2024	1.5%
Q4 2023	1.4%
Q3 2023	1.2%
Q2 2023	3.1%
Q1 2023	3.2%
Q4 2022	3.1%
Q3 2022	7.0%
Q2 2022	0.5%
Q1 2022	0.3%
Q4 2021	2.3%
Q3 2021	-1.2%
Q2 2021	17.8%
Q1 2021	4.7%
Q4 2020	1.6%
Q3 2020	2.2%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.