Panama Balance Of Trade

Name: Panama Balance Of Trade
Creator: Agentic Investor

Panama · Monthly series · EC-PA-BOT

Latest, August 2026

-1.19B PAB

+334.36M PAB from July 2026

Open interactive chartPanama Balance Of Trade in the app

History through August 2026, the forecast path to August 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for August 2027: -1.31B PAB, with an 80% interval of -1.61B PAB to -1.02B PAB.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
September 2026	-1.31B PAB	-1.54B PAB	-1.11B PAB
October 2026	-1.41B PAB	-1.69B PAB	-1.14B PAB
November 2026	-1.25B PAB	-1.43B PAB	-1.08B PAB
December 2026	-1.34B PAB	-1.73B PAB	-981.15M PAB
January 2027	-1.26B PAB	-1.54B PAB	-1.00B PAB
February 2027	-1.15B PAB	-1.53B PAB	-809.21M PAB
March 2027	-1.31B PAB	-1.82B PAB	-828.37M PAB
April 2027	-1.26B PAB	-1.72B PAB	-823.69M PAB
May 2027	-1.33B PAB	-1.60B PAB	-1.07B PAB
June 2027	-1.29B PAB	-1.79B PAB	-807.30M PAB
July 2027	-1.31B PAB	-1.60B PAB	-1.04B PAB
August 2027	-1.31B PAB	-1.61B PAB	-1.02B PAB

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +10%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
Direction: 60%No clear edge over a coin flip (86 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points: 84 of 96Anticipated most turns (96 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 10% lowerError ratio 0.90; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2014-09-01 to 2026-08-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-08-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 17% of the 119 earlier readings since September 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
August 2026	-1.19B PAB
July 2026	-1.53B PAB
June 2026	-1.33B PAB
May 2026	-1.35B PAB
April 2026	-1.42B PAB
March 2026	-1.23B PAB
February 2026	-952.35M PAB
January 2026	-988.26M PAB
December 2025	-1.22B PAB
November 2025	-972.52M PAB
October 2025	-1.32B PAB
September 2025	-1.11B PAB
August 2025	-1.05B PAB
July 2025	-1.03B PAB
June 2025	-867.53M PAB
May 2025	-1.07B PAB
April 2025	-1.08B PAB
March 2025	-957.52M PAB
February 2025	-1.07B PAB
January 2025	-1.09B PAB
December 2024	-1.06B PAB
November 2024	-994.34M PAB
October 2024	-1.26B PAB
September 2024	-1.09B PAB

Source

Data: public market data feeds.