Philippines Imports YoY

Name: Philippines Imports YoY
Creator: Agentic Investor

Philippines · Monthly series · EC-PH-IMPYY

Latest, September 2026

25.7%

+4.80pp from August 2026

Open interactive chartPhilippines Imports YoY in the app

History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 9.9%, with an 80% interval of -5.4% to 26.0%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
October 2026	22.3%	9.5%	35.5%
November 2026	22.5%	11.3%	34.7%
December 2026	19.6%	6.2%	33.8%
January 2027	24.0%	16.3%	32.1%
February 2027	18.1%	3.1%	33.9%
March 2027	16.5%	-4.0%	38.0%
April 2027	13.7%	-22.8%	51.3%
May 2027	11.5%	-21.2%	45.3%
June 2027	11.3%	-23.1%	46.6%
July 2027	11.1%	-14.2%	37.3%
August 2027	13.1%	-7.5%	34.2%
September 2027	9.9%	-5.4%	26.0%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +16%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 10 won)
Direction: 69%No clear edge over a coin flip (98 of 143 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points: 66 of 79Anticipated most turns (79 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 16% lowerError ratio 0.84; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 83% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
September 2026	25.7%
August 2026	20.9%
July 2026	23.0%
June 2026	25.0%
May 2026	28.2%
April 2026	27.3%
March 2026	17.0%
February 2026	12.6%
January 2026	-1.0%
December 2025	7.1%
November 2025	2.3%
October 2025	-3.0%
September 2025	5.1%
August 2025	-4.9%
July 2025	5.8%
June 2025	15.7%
May 2025	-4.4%
April 2025	-2.5%
March 2025	17.8%
February 2025	1.9%
January 2025	11.2%
December 2024	-1.5%
November 2024	-4.1%
October 2024	11.3%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.