Pakistan Government Budget
Pakistan · Annual series · EC-PK-GBP
Latest, 2025
-5.4 pts
+1.5 pts from 2024
Forecast
No forecast is cached this cycle.
AI confidence
No forecast yetEvidence will appear when a forecast and its backtests are available.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison not readyA forecast and enough history for rolling backtests are required.
Reading
It is above 78% of the 9 earlier readings since 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | -5.4 pts |
| 2024 | -6.9 pts |
| 2023 | -7.8 pts |
| 2022 | -7.9 pts |
| 2021 | -6.1 pts |
| 2020 | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | -7.9 pts |
| 2018 | -4.2 pts |
| 2017 | -5.8 pts |
| 2016 | -4.6 pts |
| 2015 | -5.3 pts |
| 2014 | -5.5 pts |
| 2013 | -8.2 pts |
| 2012 | -8.8 pts |
| 2011 | -6.5 pts |
| 2010 | -6.3 pts |
| 2006 | 4.3 pts |
| 2005 | 3.3 pts |
| 2004 | 2.3 pts |
| 2003 | 3.7 pts |
| 2001 | 4.3 pts |
| 1999 | 5.4 pts |
| 1998 | 6.1 pts |
| 1997 | 7.7 pts |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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