AgenticInvestor

Pakistan Government Debt

Pakistan · Monthly series · EC-PK-GD

Latest, August 2026

82.95T PKR

-0.5% from July 2026

Open interactive chartPakistan Government Debt in the app

93.05T56.35T19.65TSeptember 2016August 2027
History through August 2026, the forecast path to August 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for August 2027: 88.22T PKR, with an 80% interval of 83.52T PKR to 93.05T PKR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
September 202683.12T PKR81.00T PKR85.37T PKR
October 202683.32T PKR81.47T PKR85.35T PKR
November 202683.94T PKR81.51T PKR86.47T PKR
December 202684.59T PKR82.15T PKR87.09T PKR
January 202785.12T PKR81.91T PKR88.49T PKR
February 202785.39T PKR83.51T PKR87.32T PKR
March 202785.80T PKR83.21T PKR88.48T PKR
April 202786.25T PKR83.97T PKR88.69T PKR
May 202786.89T PKR84.88T PKR89.00T PKR
June 202787.65T PKR85.84T PKR89.55T PKR
July 202788.13T PKR85.00T PKR91.37T PKR
August 202788.22T PKR83.52T PKR93.05T PKR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+39%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
Direction
91%Beats a coin flip (131 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
1 of 29Anticipated some turns (29 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
39% lowerError ratio 0.61; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-09-01 to 2026-08-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 98% of the 119 earlier readings since September 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
August 202682.95T PKR
July 202683.38T PKR
June 202683.64T PKR
May 202681.95T PKR
April 202681.93T PKR
March 202680.52T PKR
February 202679.88T PKR
January 202679.33T PKR
December 202578.53T PKR
November 202577.54T PKR
October 202576.97T PKR
September 202576.61T PKR
August 202577.46T PKR
July 202578.24T PKR
June 202577.89T PKR
May 202576.05T PKR
April 202574.94T PKR
March 202573.69T PKR
February 202573.04T PKR
January 202572.12T PKR
December 202471.65T PKR
November 202470.36T PKR
October 202469.11T PKR
September 202469.57T PKR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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