AgenticInvestor

Portugal Current Account

Portugal · Monthly series · EC-PT-CA

Latest, August 2026

1.42B EUR

+71.5% from July 2026

Open interactive chartPortugal Current Account in the app

1.748B-83.42M-1.914BSeptember 2016August 2027
History through August 2026, the forecast path to August 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for August 2027: 1.15B EUR, with an 80% interval of 494.58M EUR to 1.75B EUR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
September 2026535.18M EUR213.82M EUR841.88M EUR
October 2026583.11M EUR-294.86M EUR1.46B EUR
November 2026-160.69M EUR-557.85M EUR261.71M EUR
December 2026-456.41M EUR-1.39B EUR511.58M EUR
January 202724.94M EUR-493.30M EUR554.77M EUR
February 2027-170.62M EUR-665.66M EUR360.44M EUR
March 2027-31.13M EUR-718.70M EUR678.52M EUR
April 2027-81.81M EUR-523.53M EUR363.29M EUR
May 2027-828.80M EUR-1.91B EUR298.49M EUR
June 2027215.05M EUR-835.26M EUR1.29B EUR
July 2027776.17M EUR90.89M EUR1.43B EUR
August 20271.15B EUR494.58M EUR1.75B EUR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+69%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
Direction
92%Beats a coin flip (133 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
61 of 82Anticipated most turns (82 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
69% lowerError ratio 0.31; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-09-01 to 2026-08-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 97% of the 119 earlier readings since September 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
August 20261.42B EUR
July 2026827.70M EUR
June 2026-303.42M EUR
May 2026-632.82M EUR
April 2026350.41M EUR
March 202693.97M EUR
February 2026-288.39M EUR
January 202617.09M EUR
December 2025-739.36M EUR
November 2025-1.79M EUR
October 20251.14B EUR
September 2025566.00M EUR
August 20251.55B EUR
July 20251.41B EUR
June 2025507.00M EUR
May 2025-347.60M EUR
April 2025190.60M EUR
March 2025-174.41M EUR
February 2025-229.61M EUR
January 2025493.00M EUR
December 2024-862.94M EUR
November 2024345.28M EUR
October 2024598.00M EUR
September 20241.16B EUR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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