AgenticInvestor

Portugal Exports

Portugal · Monthly series · EC-PT-EXP

Latest, July 2026

8.27B EUR

+4.0% from June 2026

Open interactive chartPortugal Exports in the app

10.31B6.705B3.099BAugust 2016July 2027
History through July 2026, the forecast path to July 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for July 2027: 8.45B EUR, with an 80% interval of 7.48B EUR to 9.46B EUR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
August 20266.35B EUR5.56B EUR7.08B EUR
September 20267.89B EUR7.02B EUR8.76B EUR
October 20268.07B EUR7.24B EUR8.90B EUR
November 20268.08B EUR7.10B EUR9.10B EUR
December 20267.04B EUR6.48B EUR7.58B EUR
January 20277.63B EUR7.10B EUR8.20B EUR
February 20277.82B EUR7.02B EUR8.65B EUR
March 20278.46B EUR6.60B EUR10.31B EUR
April 20277.97B EUR6.66B EUR9.26B EUR
May 20278.47B EUR7.31B EUR9.68B EUR
June 20278.24B EUR7.28B EUR9.23B EUR
July 20278.45B EUR7.48B EUR9.46B EUR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+36%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
Direction
73%No clear edge over a coin flip (105 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
66 of 85Anticipated most turns (85 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
36% lowerError ratio 0.64; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-08-01 to 2026-07-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
80%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 97% of the 119 earlier readings since August 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
July 20268.27B EUR
June 20267.96B EUR
May 20268.17B EUR
April 20268.38B EUR
March 20268.47B EUR
February 20267.09B EUR
January 20266.86B EUR
December 20256.48B EUR
November 20257.57B EUR
October 20257.73B EUR
September 20258.27B EUR
August 20255.66B EUR
July 20257.96B EUR
June 20257.34B EUR
May 20257.63B EUR
April 20256.96B EUR
March 20257.13B EUR
February 20257.34B EUR
January 20257.08B EUR
December 20245.80B EUR
November 20247.05B EUR
October 20247.75B EUR
September 20246.86B EUR
August 20245.53B EUR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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