AgenticInvestor

Portugal Fiscal Expenditure

Portugal · Monthly series · EC-PT-FE

Latest, September 2026

60.63B EUR

+13.5% from August 2026

Open interactive chartPortugal Fiscal Expenditure in the app

94.93B49.23B3.526BOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 64.16B EUR, with an 80% interval of 57.69B EUR to 71.23B EUR.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 202669.14B EUR66.44B EUR71.82B EUR
November 202677.60B EUR73.87B EUR82.21B EUR
December 202685.10B EUR76.52B EUR94.93B EUR
January 20275.90B EUR4.76B EUR7.09B EUR
February 202712.03B EUR10.31B EUR14.37B EUR
March 202718.73B EUR17.06B EUR21.12B EUR
April 202726.68B EUR23.63B EUR30.05B EUR
May 202733.67B EUR30.94B EUR36.60B EUR
June 202741.00B EUR38.12B EUR44.19B EUR
July 202749.96B EUR47.71B EUR52.51B EUR
August 202756.37B EUR53.12B EUR60.20B EUR
September 202764.16B EUR57.69B EUR71.23B EUR

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+95%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
98%Beats a coin flip (141 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
24 of 24Anticipated most turns (24 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
95% lowerError ratio 0.05; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 95% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 202660.63B EUR
August 202653.40B EUR
July 202647.45B EUR
June 202639.65B EUR
May 202631.69B EUR
April 202625.19B EUR
March 202617.89B EUR
February 202612.08B EUR
January 20265.67B EUR
December 202577.83B EUR
November 202568.61B EUR
October 202560.26B EUR
September 202553.29B EUR
August 202547.89B EUR
July 202542.32B EUR
June 202535.51B EUR
May 202528.77B EUR
April 202523.32B EUR
March 202516.60B EUR
February 202511.04B EUR
January 20255.38B EUR
December 202472.04B EUR
November 202464.27B EUR
October 202457.48B EUR

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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