Portugal Hospital Beds

The serving forecast made larger errors than the no-change baseline in these tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-17%Trails the no-change baseline over 6 tests (6 tests, 3 won)

Direction

53%No clear edge over a coin flip (9 of 17 calls right in 6 tests)

Turning points

n/aToo few tests (2 turns, 8 needed) (2 turns in 6 tests, 4 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

17% higherError ratio 1.17; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

3 / 6Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2006-12-01 to 2023-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

100%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• The 80% band held more than expected outcomes; interpret its width with care.
• Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2023-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.