Paraguay Money Supply M0
Paraguay · Monthly series · EC-PY-M0
Latest, September 2026
20.20T PYG
+0.9% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 21.12T PYG, with an 80% interval of 20.39T PYG to 21.91T PYG.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 20.21T PYG | 19.88T PYG | 20.55T PYG |
| November 2026 | 20.47T PYG | 20.26T PYG | 20.71T PYG |
| December 2026 | 22.28T PYG | 22.03T PYG | 22.60T PYG |
| January 2027 | 21.22T PYG | 20.66T PYG | 21.85T PYG |
| February 2027 | 20.96T PYG | 20.55T PYG | 21.41T PYG |
| March 2027 | 20.99T PYG | 20.53T PYG | 21.50T PYG |
| April 2027 | 21.07T PYG | 20.25T PYG | 21.98T PYG |
| May 2027 | 20.97T PYG | 20.40T PYG | 21.61T PYG |
| June 2027 | 21.07T PYG | 20.29T PYG | 21.92T PYG |
| July 2027 | 21.08T PYG | 20.26T PYG | 21.99T PYG |
| August 2027 | 21.10T PYG | 20.23T PYG | 22.04T PYG |
| September 2027 | 21.12T PYG | 20.39T PYG | 21.91T PYG |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +61%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
- Direction
- 96%Beats a coin flip (138 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 54 of 68Anticipated most turns (68 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 61% lowerError ratio 0.39; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 94% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 20.20T PYG |
| August 2026 | 20.02T PYG |
| July 2026 | 20.03T PYG |
| June 2026 | 20.26T PYG |
| May 2026 | 20.23T PYG |
| April 2026 | 20.12T PYG |
| March 2026 | 20.38T PYG |
| February 2026 | 20.28T PYG |
| January 2026 | 20.61T PYG |
| December 2025 | 21.74T PYG |
| November 2025 | 19.82T PYG |
| October 2025 | 19.62T PYG |
| September 2025 | 19.79T PYG |
| August 2025 | 19.71T PYG |
| July 2025 | 19.71T PYG |
| June 2025 | 19.58T PYG |
| May 2025 | 19.64T PYG |
| April 2025 | 19.55T PYG |
| March 2025 | 19.34T PYG |
| February 2025 | 19.42T PYG |
| January 2025 | 19.59T PYG |
| December 2024 | 20.81T PYG |
| November 2024 | 18.65T PYG |
| October 2024 | 18.28T PYG |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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- Paraguay Consumer Price Index
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