Paraguay Money Supply M3
Paraguay · Monthly series · EC-PY-M3
Latest, September 2026
173.39T PYG
-0.2% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 183.71T PYG, with an 80% interval of 166.26T PYG to 200.88T PYG.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 174.26T PYG | 172.27T PYG | 176.30T PYG |
| November 2026 | 174.72T PYG | 171.10T PYG | 178.48T PYG |
| December 2026 | 178.06T PYG | 174.52T PYG | 181.80T PYG |
| January 2027 | 177.28T PYG | 172.90T PYG | 181.59T PYG |
| February 2027 | 178.13T PYG | 172.22T PYG | 183.94T PYG |
| March 2027 | 179.61T PYG | 168.39T PYG | 190.52T PYG |
| April 2027 | 180.65T PYG | 170.98T PYG | 190.17T PYG |
| May 2027 | 180.82T PYG | 171.18T PYG | 190.23T PYG |
| June 2027 | 182.01T PYG | 172.24T PYG | 191.75T PYG |
| July 2027 | 182.29T PYG | 170.95T PYG | 193.41T PYG |
| August 2027 | 183.88T PYG | 167.54T PYG | 199.69T PYG |
| September 2027 | 183.71T PYG | 166.26T PYG | 200.88T PYG |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +49%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 10 won)
- Direction
- 92%Beats a coin flip (132 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 30 of 53Anticipated most turns (53 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 49% lowerError ratio 0.51; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 10 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 99% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 173.39T PYG |
| August 2026 | 173.67T PYG |
| July 2026 | 171.16T PYG |
| June 2026 | 169.17T PYG |
| May 2026 | 166.35T PYG |
| April 2026 | 164.60T PYG |
| March 2026 | 169.27T PYG |
| February 2026 | 165.57T PYG |
| January 2026 | 163.25T PYG |
| December 2025 | 162.64T PYG |
| November 2025 | 161.38T PYG |
| October 2025 | 160.63T PYG |
| September 2025 | 158.78T PYG |
| August 2025 | 161.93T PYG |
| July 2025 | 159.76T PYG |
| June 2025 | 159.77T PYG |
| May 2025 | 160.18T PYG |
| April 2025 | 160.62T PYG |
| March 2025 | 159.73T PYG |
| February 2025 | 157.29T PYG |
| January 2025 | 154.28T PYG |
| December 2024 | 154.42T PYG |
| November 2024 | 149.46T PYG |
| October 2024 | 149.24T PYG |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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- Paraguay Changes In Inventories
- Paraguay Consumer Price Index
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