AgenticInvestor

Paraguay Steel Production

Paraguay · Monthly series · EC-PY-SP

Latest, December 2020

3,000.0 pts

+50.0% from November 2020

Open interactive chartParaguay Steel Production in the app

56122221-1169January 2011December 2021
History through December 2020, the forecast path to December 2021 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for December 2021: 2,909.1 pts, with an 80% interval of 1,829.3 pts to 4,233.4 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
January 20212,089.7 pts-524.8 pts4,818.0 pts
February 20211,649.2 pts38.1 pts3,815.0 pts
March 20211,519.0 pts-1,169.4 pts5,611.7 pts
April 20211,600.0 pts-70.3 pts4,009.1 pts
May 20211,612.7 pts-435.1 pts4,669.6 pts
June 20211,680.4 pts654.3 pts3,258.4 pts
July 20211,928.5 pts776.1 pts3,590.8 pts
August 20212,321.2 pts1,164.3 pts3,855.6 pts
September 20212,516.8 pts1,677.1 pts3,622.1 pts
October 20212,775.2 pts2,071.1 pts3,670.8 pts
November 20212,949.4 pts2,267.1 pts3,781.2 pts
December 20212,909.1 pts1,829.3 pts4,233.4 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+8%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 8 won)
Direction
79%Beats a coin flip (92 of 116 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
21 of 41Anticipated most turns (41 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
8% lowerError ratio 0.92; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
8 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2009-01-01 to 2020-12-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 42% of the 119 earlier readings since January 2011.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
December 20203,000.0 pts
November 20202,000.0 pts
October 20202,000.0 pts
September 20202,000.0 pts
August 20201,000.0 pts
July 20201,000.0 pts
June 20201,000.0 pts
May 20202,000.0 pts
April 20202,000.0 pts
March 20202,000.0 pts
February 20202,000.0 pts
January 20202,250.0 pts
December 20193,137.0 pts
November 20193,569.0 pts
October 20193,245.0 pts
September 20192,812.0 pts
August 20193,245.0 pts
July 20192,163.0 pts
June 20191,622.0 pts
May 20191,298.0 pts
April 20191,298.0 pts
March 2019649.0 pts
February 20191,082.0 pts
January 20192,163.0 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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