Romania Government Budget

Name: Romania Government Budget
Creator: Agentic Investor

Romania · Annual series · EC-RO-GBP

Latest, 2025

-7.8 pts

+1.4 pts from 2024

Open interactive chartRomania Government Budget in the app

History through 2025, the forecast path to 2028 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for 2028: -3.5 pts, with an 80% interval of -22.2 pts to 6.1 pts.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
2026	-5.3 pts	-12.0 pts	0.4 pts
2027	-3.8 pts	-12.9 pts	1.7 pts
2028	-3.5 pts	-22.2 pts	6.1 pts

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Limited evidence

At least 6 complete tests are required; 4 are available.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: n/aToo few tests (4 tests, 6 needed) (4 tests, 3 won)
Direction: n/aToo few tests (4 tests, 6 needed) (7 of 11 calls right in 4 tests)
Turning points: n/aToo few tests (4 tests, 6 needed) (3 turns in 4 tests, 1 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 4% lowerError ratio 0.96; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 3 / 4Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2014-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 75%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 22% of the 9 earlier readings since 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
2025	-7.8 pts
2024	-9.2 pts
2023	-6.6 pts
2022	-6.5 pts
2021	-7.2 pts
2020	-9.3 pts
2019	-4.4 pts
2018	-2.8 pts
2017	-2.5 pts
2016	-2.5 pts
2015	-0.5 pts
2014	-1.2 pts
2013	-2.3 pts
2012	-3.8 pts
2011	-5.6 pts
2010	-7.1 pts
2009	-9.5 pts
2008	-5.4 pts
2007	-2.8 pts
2006	-2.1 pts
2005	-0.8 pts
2004	-1.1 pts
2003	-1.4 pts
2002	-1.9 pts

Source

Data: public market data feeds.