AgenticInvestor

Romania Government Budget Value

Romania · Monthly series · EC-RO-GBV

Latest, September 2026

-80.30B RON

-15.76B RON from August 2026

Open interactive chartRomania Government Budget Value in the app

7.849B-74.1B-156.1BOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: -83.60B RON, with an 80% interval of -120.63B RON to -50.47B RON.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 2026-92.18B RON-97.97B RON-85.49B RON
November 2026-106.60B RON-117.61B RON-95.47B RON
December 2026-127.19B RON-156.05B RON-96.52B RON
January 20271.70B RON-6.72B RON7.85B RON
February 2027-16.67B RON-37.63B RON-1.81B RON
March 2027-31.80B RON-65.20B RON-6.28B RON
April 2027-40.81B RON-70.95B RON-18.02B RON
May 2027-52.99B RON-81.82B RON-28.95B RON
June 2027-55.86B RON-89.14B RON-29.54B RON
July 2027-60.33B RON-104.86B RON-24.80B RON
August 2027-71.43B RON-107.68B RON-41.88B RON
September 2027-83.60B RON-120.63B RON-50.47B RON

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+58%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
85%Beats a coin flip (122 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
36 of 42Anticipated most turns (42 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
58% lowerError ratio 0.42; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 13% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 2026-80.30B RON
August 2026-64.54B RON
July 2026-52.04B RON
June 2026-47.16B RON
May 2026-44.13B RON
April 2026-28.59B RON
March 2026-24.47B RON
February 2026-10.87B RON
January 20265.87B RON
December 2025-149.49B RON
November 2025-125.12B RON
October 2025-111.16B RON
September 2025-102.91B RON
August 2025-88.81B RON
July 2025-81.88B RON
June 2025-78.60B RON
May 2025-73.10B RON
April 2025-55.86B RON
March 2025-44.39B RON
February 2025-28.64B RON
January 2025-5.57B RON
December 2024-147.95B RON
November 2024-123.17B RON
October 2024-104.49B RON

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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