Romania Military Expenditure

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

-7%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 5 won)

Direction

39%No clear edge over a coin flip (14 of 36 calls right in 12 tests)

Turning points

3 of 9Anticipated some turns (9 turns in 12 tests, 3 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

7% higherError ratio 1.07; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

5 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

1990-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

83%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.