AgenticSerbia Interbank Rate
Serbia · Monthly series · EC-RS-INBR
Latest, April 2024
5.7%
+0.00pp from March 2024
Forecast
Forecast for April 2025: 5.9%, with an 80% interval of 4.4% to 9.3%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| June 2024 | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% |
| July 2024 | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| August 2024 | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% |
| September 2024 | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| October 2024 | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% |
| November 2024 | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% |
| December 2024 | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% |
| January 2025 | 5.9% | 4.9% | 8.5% |
| February 2025 | 5.9% | 5.0% | 8.3% |
| March 2025 | 5.9% | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| April 2025 | 5.9% | 4.4% | 9.3% |
AI confidence
Mixed evidenceThe tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- -8%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 6 won)
- Direction
- 65%No clear edge over a coin flip (92 of 141 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 6 of 36Anticipated some turns (36 turns in 12 tests, 1 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 8% higherError ratio 1.08; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 6 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2012-05-01 to 2024-04-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 82%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2024-04-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 80% of the 119 earlier readings since May 2014.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 5.7% |
| March 2024 | 5.7% |
| February 2024 | 5.7% |
| January 2024 | 5.7% |
| December 2023 | 5.7% |
| November 2023 | 5.7% |
| October 2023 | 5.7% |
| September 2023 | 5.8% |
| August 2023 | 5.9% |
| July 2023 | 5.9% |
| June 2023 | 5.7% |
| May 2023 | 5.6% |
| April 2023 | 5.6% |
| March 2023 | 5.5% |
| February 2023 | 5.3% |
| January 2023 | 5.2% |
| December 2022 | 5.0% |
| November 2022 | 4.4% |
| October 2022 | 3.9% |
| September 2022 | 3.4% |
| August 2022 | 2.9% |
| July 2022 | 2.6% |
| June 2022 | 2.3% |
| May 2022 | 1.9% |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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