AgenticInvestor

Russia Bank Lending Rate

Russia · Monthly series · EC-RU-BLR

Latest, September 2026

18.1%

+0.23pp from August 2026

Open interactive chartRussia Bank Lending Rate in the app

27.4516.695.94October 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 18.1%, with an 80% interval of 13.4% to 27.4%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 202618.1%17.6%18.6%
November 202618.2%17.2%19.5%
December 202618.2%16.6%20.3%
January 202718.2%15.8%21.8%
February 202718.2%16.0%21.7%
March 202718.2%16.7%20.7%
April 202718.2%16.6%20.9%
May 202718.2%15.1%23.8%
June 202718.2%15.2%23.5%
July 202718.2%14.9%24.5%
August 202718.2%14.7%24.9%
September 202718.1%13.4%27.4%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+13%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 7 won)
Direction
77%No clear edge over a coin flip (109 of 142 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
4 of 43Anticipated some turns (43 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
13% lowerError ratio 0.87; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
7 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 86% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 202618.1%
August 202617.9%
July 202616.8%
June 202617.1%
May 202617.2%
April 202617.6%
March 202617.3%
February 202618.0%
January 202618.3%
December 202518.0%
November 202518.8%
October 202517.9%
September 202519.0%
August 202518.7%
July 202521.2%
June 202521.8%
May 202522.4%
April 202522.7%
March 202522.2%
February 202520.6%
January 202523.8%
December 202424.0%
November 202422.8%
October 202420.9%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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