Slovakia Money Supply M2
Slovakia · Monthly series · EC-SK-M2
Latest, September 2026
97.80B EUR
-0.2% from August 2026
Forecast
Forecast for September 2027: 102.15B EUR, with an 80% interval of 96.98B EUR to 107.05B EUR.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 98.55B EUR | 97.67B EUR | 99.46B EUR |
| November 2026 | 99.31B EUR | 98.23B EUR | 100.51B EUR |
| December 2026 | 100.38B EUR | 97.79B EUR | 103.27B EUR |
| January 2027 | 100.06B EUR | 98.28B EUR | 101.81B EUR |
| February 2027 | 100.68B EUR | 98.69B EUR | 102.70B EUR |
| March 2027 | 100.34B EUR | 98.21B EUR | 102.41B EUR |
| April 2027 | 101.00B EUR | 97.91B EUR | 104.07B EUR |
| May 2027 | 101.57B EUR | 97.28B EUR | 105.63B EUR |
| June 2027 | 101.60B EUR | 97.78B EUR | 105.27B EUR |
| July 2027 | 101.99B EUR | 97.82B EUR | 105.95B EUR |
| August 2027 | 102.31B EUR | 97.73B EUR | 106.68B EUR |
| September 2027 | 102.15B EUR | 96.98B EUR | 107.05B EUR |
AI confidence
Supported evidenceThe point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- +51%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 11 won)
- Direction
- 99%Beats a coin flip (141 of 142 calls right in 12 tests)
- Turning points
- 4 of 49Anticipated some turns (49 turns in 12 tests, 1 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 51% lowerError ratio 0.49; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 11 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-09-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
It is above 99% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 97.80B EUR |
| August 2026 | 98.00B EUR |
| July 2026 | 97.70B EUR |
| June 2026 | 97.20B EUR |
| May 2026 | 97.00B EUR |
| April 2026 | 96.10B EUR |
| March 2026 | 95.30B EUR |
| February 2026 | 95.80B EUR |
| January 2026 | 95.00B EUR |
| December 2025 | 95.70B EUR |
| November 2025 | 94.10B EUR |
| October 2025 | 93.10B EUR |
| September 2025 | 91.70B EUR |
| August 2025 | 91.80B EUR |
| July 2025 | 91.50B EUR |
| June 2025 | 90.70B EUR |
| May 2025 | 91.40B EUR |
| April 2025 | 90.60B EUR |
| March 2025 | 89.60B EUR |
| February 2025 | 90.10B EUR |
| January 2025 | 89.90B EUR |
| December 2024 | 90.70B EUR |
| November 2024 | 89.90B EUR |
| October 2024 | 88.20B EUR |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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