AgenticInvestor

Thailand Business Confidence Index

Thailand · Monthly series · EC-TH-BCOI

Latest, October 2026

45.2%

-2.90pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartThailand Business Confidence Index in the app

53.342.9532.6November 2016October 2027
History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 47.5%, with an 80% interval of 43.1% to 50.0%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202647.3%44.2%49.4%
December 202647.2%44.3%49.0%
January 202747.2%43.9%49.2%
February 202748.0%45.8%49.3%
March 202749.4%43.7%52.8%
April 202746.7%42.0%49.3%
May 202747.7%43.5%49.9%
June 202748.3%43.4%51.0%
July 202747.3%42.3%50.0%
August 202747.6%43.1%49.9%
September 202747.9%42.7%50.7%
October 202747.5%43.1%50.0%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+4%Matches the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 6 won)
Direction
63%No clear edge over a coin flip (91 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
69 of 80Anticipated most turns (80 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
4% lowerError ratio 0.96; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
6 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 12% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202645.2%
September 202648.1%
August 202649.8%
July 202646.7%
June 202646.1%
May 202642.5%
April 202643.5%
March 202647.7%
February 202649.6%
January 202649.1%
December 202549.8%
November 202550.0%
October 202548.7%
September 202548.0%
August 202547.5%
July 202545.8%
June 202548.6%
May 202546.7%
April 202547.1%
March 202550.2%
February 202548.9%
January 202548.5%
December 202448.4%
November 202449.3%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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