Turkey Corruption Rank
Turkey · Annual series · EC-TR-CORR
Latest, 2025
124.0 pts
+15.9% from 2024
Forecast
Forecast for 2028: 128.0 pts, with an 80% interval of 103.0 pts to 152.1 pts.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 125.5 pts | 111.6 pts | 139.6 pts |
| 2027 | 127.0 pts | 107.6 pts | 146.3 pts |
| 2028 | 128.0 pts | 103.0 pts | 152.1 pts |
AI confidence
Limited evidenceAt least 6 complete tests are required; 3 are available.
Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)
- Accuracy vs naive
- n/aToo few tests (3 tests, 6 needed) (3 tests, 3 won)
- Direction
- n/aToo few tests (3 tests, 6 needed) (8 of 9 calls right in 3 tests)
- Turning points
- n/aToo few tests (3 tests, 6 needed) (5 turns in 3 tests, 0 without a turn)
- Error vs baseline
- 11% lowerError ratio 0.89; 1.00 is a tie.
- Tests won
- 3 / 3Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
- Test period
- 2017-12-01 to 2025-12-013 observations ahead per test.
- 80% band coverage
- 78%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
- Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
- Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2025-12-01.
- This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.
How this assessment is made
AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.
Model comparison
Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.
Reading
That is the highest of the 10 readings since 2016.
Recent history (24 observations)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 124.0 pts |
| 2024 | 107.0 pts |
| 2023 | 115.0 pts |
| 2022 | 101.0 pts |
| 2021 | 96.0 pts |
| 2020 | 86.0 pts |
| 2019 | 91.0 pts |
| 2018 | 78.0 pts |
| 2017 | 81.0 pts |
| 2016 | 75.0 pts |
| 2015 | 66.0 pts |
| 2014 | 64.0 pts |
| 2013 | 53.0 pts |
| 2012 | 54.0 pts |
| 2011 | 61.0 pts |
| 2010 | 56.0 pts |
| 2009 | 61.0 pts |
| 2008 | 58.0 pts |
| 2007 | 64.0 pts |
| 2006 | 60.0 pts |
| 2005 | 65.0 pts |
| 2004 | 77.0 pts |
| 2003 | 77.0 pts |
| 2002 | 64.0 pts |
Source
Data: public market data feeds.
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