Turkey GDP From Public Administration

Name: Turkey GDP From Public Administration
Creator: Agentic Investor

Turkey · Quarterly series · EC-TR-GDPPA

Latest, Q2 2026

55.41B TRY

-4.8% from Q1 2026

Open interactive chartTurkey GDP From Public Administration in the app

History through Q2 2026, the forecast path to Q2 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for Q2 2027: 56.26B TRY, with an 80% interval of 53.94B TRY to 58.67B TRY.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
Q3 2026	60.48B TRY	57.66B TRY	63.17B TRY
Q4 2026	57.09B TRY	54.94B TRY	59.29B TRY
Q1 2027	59.10B TRY	57.70B TRY	60.43B TRY
Q2 2027	56.26B TRY	53.94B TRY	58.67B TRY

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-14.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: +35%Beats the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 6 won)
Direction: 78%No clear edge over a coin flip (25 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)
Turning points: 10 of 14Anticipated most turns (14 turns in 8 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 35% lowerError ratio 0.65; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 6 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2018-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 84%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-14 against the cached history through 2026-06-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 79% of the 39 earlier readings since Q3 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
Q2 2026	55.41B TRY
Q1 2026	58.23B TRY
Q4 2025	55.64B TRY
Q3 2025	59.46B TRY
Q2 2025	53.31B TRY
Q1 2025	56.46B TRY
Q4 2024	55.33B TRY
Q3 2024	58.20B TRY
Q2 2024	53.81B TRY
Q1 2024	55.67B TRY
Q4 2023	55.97B TRY
Q3 2023	56.99B TRY
Q2 2023	53.38B TRY
Q1 2023	53.33B TRY
Q4 2022	54.09B TRY
Q3 2022	55.09B TRY
Q2 2022	51.67B TRY
Q1 2022	52.46B TRY
Q4 2021	54.04B TRY
Q3 2021	52.58B TRY
Q2 2021	50.81B TRY
Q1 2021	50.86B TRY
Q4 2020	50.91B TRY
Q3 2020	47.94B TRY

Source

Data: public market data feeds.