Ukraine External Debt

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive

+49%Beats the no-change baseline over 8 tests (8 tests, 7 won)

Direction

91%Beats a coin flip (29 of 32 calls right in 8 tests)

Turning points

3 of 12Anticipated some turns (12 turns in 8 tests, 2 without a turn)

Error vs baseline

49% lowerError ratio 0.51; 1.00 is a tie.

Tests won

7 / 8Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.

Test period

2018-09-01 to 2026-06-014 observations ahead per test.

80% band coverage

84%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

• Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
• Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-06-01.
• This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.