AgenticInvestor

Ukraine Fiscal Expenditure

Ukraine · Monthly series · EC-UA-FE

Latest, September 2026

4.80T UAH

+14.8% from August 2026

Open interactive chartUkraine Fiscal Expenditure in the app

8.251T4.147T42.89BOctober 2016September 2027
History through September 2026, the forecast path to September 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 6.24T UAH, with an 80% interval of 4.66T UAH to 8.25T UAH.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 20265.51T UAH5.09T UAH5.93T UAH
November 20266.15T UAH5.70T UAH6.73T UAH
December 20267.07T UAH6.02T UAH8.25T UAH
January 2027415.15B UAH183.10B UAH767.14B UAH
February 2027849.19B UAH561.11B UAH1.28T UAH
March 20271.65T UAH1.13T UAH2.35T UAH
April 20272.44T UAH1.70T UAH3.36T UAH
May 20273.23T UAH2.41T UAH4.25T UAH
June 20273.87T UAH2.87T UAH5.08T UAH
July 20274.73T UAH3.40T UAH6.26T UAH
August 20275.46T UAH4.26T UAH6.96T UAH
September 20276.24T UAH4.66T UAH8.25T UAH

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Supported evidence

The point forecast beat the no-change baseline overall and in a majority of the evaluated tests.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive
+76%Beats the no-change baseline over 12 tests (12 tests, 12 won)
Direction
91%Beats a coin flip (131 of 144 calls right in 12 tests)
Turning points
24 of 24Anticipated most turns (24 turns in 12 tests, 0 without a turn)
Error vs baseline
76% lowerError ratio 0.24; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won
12 / 12Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period
2014-10-01 to 2026-09-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage
79%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.
How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 99% of the 119 earlier readings since October 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)
The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 20264.80T UAH
August 20264.18T UAH
July 20263.44T UAH
June 20262.83T UAH
May 20262.26T UAH
April 20261.71T UAH
March 20261.15T UAH
February 2026658.45B UAH
January 2026286.24B UAH
December 20255.47T UAH
November 20254.54T UAH
October 20254.08T UAH
September 20253.64T UAH
August 20253.24T UAH
July 20252.78T UAH
June 20252.42T UAH
May 20251.99T UAH
April 20251.56T UAH
March 20251.16T UAH
February 2025767.25B UAH
January 2025353.78B UAH
December 20244.49T UAH
November 20243.78T UAH
October 20243.35T UAH

Source

Data: public market data feeds.

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