Uganda Business Confidence Index

Name: Uganda Business Confidence Index
Creator: Agentic Investor

Uganda · Monthly series · EC-UG-BCOI

Latest, October 2026

53.5%

-3.26pp from September 2026

Open interactive chartUganda Business Confidence Index in the app

History through October 2026, the forecast path to October 2027 (dashed) and its 80% interval (shaded).

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 55.1%, with an 80% interval of 50.2% to 59.0%.

Forecast path. Intervals are shown where available.
Period	Forecast	80% low	80% high
November 2026	54.2%	50.2%	58.0%
December 2026	54.5%	52.3%	56.4%
January 2027	54.6%	51.2%	57.5%
February 2027	54.7%	50.6%	58.2%
March 2027	54.7%	50.2%	58.6%
April 2027	54.8%	49.4%	59.2%
May 2027	54.8%	49.5%	59.3%
June 2027	54.9%	47.6%	60.9%
July 2027	54.9%	49.3%	59.6%
August 2027	54.9%	52.0%	57.4%
September 2027	55.0%	50.5%	58.7%
October 2027	55.1%	50.2%	59.0%

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model). Forecast generated 2026-11-15.

AI confidence

Mixed evidence

The tests show no consistent, material advantage over the no-change baseline.

Model: Agentic Investor TSFM (foundation model)

Accuracy vs naive: -4%Matches the no-change baseline over 11 tests (11 tests, 6 won)
Direction: 55%No clear edge over a coin flip (72 of 132 calls right in 11 tests)
Turning points: 23 of 66Anticipated some turns (66 turns in 11 tests, 0 without a turn)

Error vs baseline: 4% higherError ratio 1.04; 1.00 is a tie.
Tests won: 6 / 11Complete rolling backtests; ties count as no win.
Test period: 2015-11-01 to 2026-10-0112 observations ahead per test.
80% band coverage: 81%Observed outcomes inside the band across all stored test windows.

Band coverage uses all stored test windows, including model-selection windows when present; it does not determine the confidence label.
Evaluated 2026-11-15 against the cached history through 2026-10-01.
This is an evaluation of the serving model; it does not establish a winner across four model classes.

How this assessment is made

AI confidence describes historical evidence for this forecast, not a probability of being correct. Each backtest fits on data available before its test window. The baseline carries the last value forward. Supported evidence requires at least six complete, non-overlapping tests, an error ratio below 0.90 (rounded to two decimals), and wins in a majority of tests. Ratios from 0.90 to below 1.10 are on par; 1.10 or above is weak evidence. Inconsistent wins produce mixed evidence. For a selected model, only the recent tests excluded from model selection determine this label. These are historical simulations using the available data, not a live trading track record; revisions and foundation-model pretraining can limit how closely they reproduce a past decision. Past performance can change.

Replay past tests

Model comparison

Comparison pendingA new ticker first receives its serving model's forecast and evaluation. An eligible nightly batch can compare both candidates, subject to call budgets and retry limits.

Reading

It is above 24% of the 119 earlier readings since November 2016.

Written from the figures by a fixed template; no AI model is involved.

Recent history (24 observations)

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
Period	Value
October 2026	53.5%
September 2026	56.7%
August 2026	57.7%
July 2026	56.1%
June 2026	55.3%
May 2026	56.7%
April 2026	55.2%
March 2026	58.0%
February 2026	59.4%
January 2026	55.6%
December 2025	56.4%
November 2025	56.2%
October 2025	58.1%
September 2025	59.1%
August 2025	57.8%
July 2025	58.2%
June 2025	59.4%
May 2025	59.6%
April 2025	59.4%
March 2025	58.3%
February 2025	59.4%
January 2025	58.3%
December 2024	59.3%
November 2024	59.8%

Source

Data: public market data feeds.